Episode 29 · July 23, 2026 · 17:37
Taking Earth's Temperature
How do scientists know the climate is changing? Dr. Mac uses a 2026 global climate report to explain baselines, temperature anomalies, ocean temperatures, sea ice, rainfall, glaciers, and why independent observations are more powerful when they agree.
Episode summary
Taking Earth's Temperature
How do scientists know the climate is changing? Dr. Mac uses a 2026 global climate report to explain baselines, temperature anomalies, ocean temperatures, sea ice, rainfall, glaciers, and why independent observations are more powerful when they agree.
Key topics
- Climate data is one of the central ideas explored in this episode.
- Baselines is one of the central ideas explored in this episode.
- Temperature anomalies is one of the central ideas explored in this episode.
- Evidence is one of the central ideas explored in this episode.
Full text
Episode transcript
This transcript is provided so listeners can explore the science discussed in the episode in full context.
Introduction
Have you ever gone to your doctor for an annual physical? One of the first things that often happens is they take a reading of your blood pressure, check your height and weight, and measure your temperature. But imagine if that was all they did, and they simply said everything looks great and sent you on your way. Of course, that is not how medicine works, because no single measurement tells the whole story about your health.
The same principle is true for our planet. Every month, scientists publish a comprehensive checkup for Earth. The newly released report for June 2026 shows the planet just experienced its second-warmest June on record, alongside historic ocean surface temperatures. But a single record-breaking month is only one vital sign. Today, we step back to look at the global climate the way scientists do, exploring how this entire combination of measurements reveals how Earth is truly changing. Welcome back to the podcast. I'm Dr. Mac, and this is The Climate Translation.
Establishing the Baseline
Before we can understand what this latest climate report is telling us, we need to answer a simple question: what exactly is "normal"? It sounds like it should be an easy question, but in climate science, defining normal takes decades. If I asked you what the average temperature is where you live, you probably could not answer with a single number. Some days are hot, some are cold, some years are wetter, and some are drier. The weather is constantly changing, so instead of looking at one day, one month, or even one year, climate scientists calculate averages over thirty-year periods to establish what we call a climate normal. That gives us our baseline.
Think about teaching a class: if one student scores 100 percent on an exam, that tells you something about that individual student, but it does not tell you much about the class as a whole. To understand how the class is performing, you need everyone's scores to calculate an average. If you give that same exam every year for thirty years, only then do you begin to understand what normal performance looks like. Climate scientists do something very similar by combining measurements from thousands of weather stations on land, ships and buoys across the oceans, weather balloons, satellites, and many other observing systems around the world to calculate what is typical for a particular location and time of year. Comparing seasons accurately is essential, because a July temperature that is completely ordinary in Georgia would be extraordinary in northern Canada, or in Australia where it is winter. Every month has its own baseline.
Once you establish that baseline, scientists focus on the difference from normal, which they call an anomaly. If the average June temperature for a location is 80 degrees and this year it reaches 82, the anomaly is plus two degrees. Anomalies allow scientists to compare places with completely different climates: a two-degree departure in Honolulu, London, or Sydney represents the exact same deviation from what is typical for each location. It provides a common language that lets researchers combine global observations month after month and year after year. The June 2026 report gives us another chapter in an observational record that now stretches back more than a century.
Reading the Thermometer
According to the latest reports from sources like NOAA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service, June 2026 was the second-warmest June ever recorded globally, continuing a remarkable streak of above-average temperatures that now stretches back half a century. Every month adds another data point to the long-term trend driven by greenhouse gases and Earth's accumulating heat energy. But one of the most notable findings in the report was not about the air; it was about the oceans. Ocean surface temperatures reached a new record for the month of June.
While that may not sound as dramatic as a terrestrial heat wave, from a climate science perspective, it is arguably the more critical measurement. Think of placing a pot of water on your stove: the metal pot warms almost immediately when you turn on the burner, but the water inside warms much more slowly because water requires far more energy to raise its temperature. The atmosphere responds rapidly to changes in energy, whereas the oceans respond slowly. Because the oceans contain an immense volume of water, they store an extraordinary amount of heat, absorbing more than 90 percent of the excess energy trapped by greenhouse gases. The oceans serve as Earth's savings account for heat, steadily accumulating more energy each year than they release back into space.
Unlike the atmosphere, which warms or cools quickly as weather systems pass through, the ocean reflects the long-term thermodynamic balance of energy entering and leaving the Earth system. When ocean temperatures break records month after month, it means the planet is steadily trapping energy that will eventually bleed back into the atmosphere. Warmer oceans supercharge evaporation, pumping extra moisture into the air, shifting global rainfall patterns, disrupting marine ecosystems, and fueling tropical cyclones. The ocean actively shapes the weather we experience every day, which is why scientists read the entire chart rather than focusing on surface temperature spikes alone.
Beyond the Thermometer
When a dashboard warning light comes on in your car, a mechanic does not just glance at the light and call it a day. They pop the hood to check coolant levels, test the battery, read diagnostic error codes, and look for leaks, because no single indicator reveals the root cause. Climate scientists treat the planet the exact same way: temperature is the headline, but it is not the complete story.
Take sea ice as an example. Every month, satellites measure how much of the Arctic and Antarctic oceans are covered by floating ice. Ice is bright and reflects a large portion of the Sun's energy back into space, while open ocean water is dark and absorbs energy. Tracking sea ice means monitoring one of the planet's primary cooling systems, and the June report showed global sea ice levels sitting well below the long-term average, extending a multi-decade decline. Scientists also monitor global precipitation patterns to track where rain falls rather than looking for a global average day. While some regions experienced extreme heat and drought this June, others, including Georgia, saw well above-average rainfall. Climate change shifts atmospheric moisture transport, making some regions wetter while others experience prolonged high-pressure dry spells.
Finally, scientists track glaciers and snow cover because frozen landscapes serve as natural freshwater reservoirs. Glaciers accumulate water during cold months and release it gradually during warm seasons, sustaining downstream water supplies for millions of people. Temperature, ocean heat, sea ice, rainfall distribution, snowpack, and glaciers all answer distinct physical questions. Together, they explain how the entire Earth system is changing.
Reading the Whole Chart
How do scientists synthesize all of these different measurements? Think of tracking a baking recipe gone wrong: adding a tiny pinch of extra salt or baking for two extra minutes will not ruin a cake on its own, but combining excess salt, over-baking, and high kitchen humidity ruins the final result. Climate science works the same way: one anomalous month or isolated dry spell is not definitive, but when every major metric shifts in the same direction simultaneously, a clear trend emerges.
Scientists do not base conclusions on a single hot month, melting glacier, hurricane, or drought. Instead, they look for consistency across multiple independent observations. The atmosphere is warming, the oceans are accumulating heat, glaciers are losing mass globally, sea ice is in long-term decline, growing seasons are shifting, and biological ecosystems are responding. These findings come from separate research groups across different countries utilizing distinct observation platforms, yet all point toward the exact same conclusion. That convergence is why scientists are confident in their findings: dozens of independent data streams tell the identical story.
Natural variability continues to produce cooler years, cold winters, and localized wet spells within a complex climate system, but those fluctuations occur on top of a steadily shifting baseline. The June 2026 report fits directly into that decades-long observational pattern. Modern science coordinates thousands of land stations, ocean buoys, satellites, and weather balloons to build an increasingly accurate picture of our planet, giving us the insights needed to prepare for the future.
Conclusion
When climate reports are published, it is easy to focus exclusively on the headline records for heat, rain, or drought. But climate science is about far more than chasing headlines; it is about building a comprehensive understanding of our planet one observation at a time, drawing from weather stations, satellites, ocean buoys, and measured glaciers worldwide.
The June 2026 report is just one chapter in that ongoing record. While individual numbers fluctuate, each report refines our understanding of how Earth's climate system functions. Science is built on decades of careful observation by researchers dedicated to understanding our global home, and recognizing these broader patterns provides the clarity we need moving forward.
I'm Dr. Mac. This has been The Climate Translation. If you have a question about the climate that you have been too afraid to ask, or if you have a differing opinion, I want to hear from you. I can use your viewpoints in a future episode. You can reach me at TheClimateTranslation@gmail.com. I'll see you next time.